Sen. John McCain's CFR minder & NSC rep
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4.7.01   People §, National Journal 		  LORNE CRANER
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If confirmed by Senate, Lorne W. Craner will step down as Intl Republican Institute president to serve as asst secretary of State for democracy, human rights & labor. During 5yrs at IRI helm, Craner has helped the "nonpartisan, democracy-building organization" grow in terms of "achievement, innovative programming & news coverage." Says Craner, 41: "We have programs in over 30 countries, ranging from instructions on running campaigns to workshops on the legislative process." He cites succesful election reform efforts in Central Europe as one of the organization's major accomplishments. Before joining the IRI, Craner worked under former National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft as director of Asian affairs. 1989-92 State Dept dep.asst sec. for legislative affairs. Before that, foreign policy advisor to Sen. John McCain, R-AZ Craner's late father, USAF Col. Robert Craner, was VietNam prisoner of war with McCain. … Senator McCain … one of his most significant foreign policy roles, chairman of directors of Intl Republican Institute, founded in 1983 "to promote democracy, strengthen free markets & the rule of law … a global campaign against tyranny & totalitarianism". Not part of Republican Party; poses as private nonprofit organization … Directors are all prominent Republicans. Members of board incl Jeane Kirkpatrick, Brent Scowcroft & Lawrence Eagleburger. The Democratic Party has an equivalent body the National Democratic Institute – the NDI. Since collapse of communism, both IRI & NDI increasingly active, sending teams to far away places to train political parties, promote an independent judiciary and help conduct free elections. Although their titles suggest a separate political profile, they are 2 heads on same body. Both are largely funded by National Endowment for Democracy (NED) & USAID which, in turn, receive American tax money. Both have favoured return to power of former high-ranking Communists which has also meant co-opting foot- soldiers from the new left who have extremely liberal ideas about drugs, sex & financial probity.
Despite its emergence in Reagan presidency, ordinary Republicans might raise eyebrows at some IRI activities & activists. While 'Queen' Jeane Kirkpatrick are writing as nod to traditional, worker bees in the background are anything but traditional. In a classic example of entryism someone hired by the IRI, say, in Moscow or Zagreb is more likely to be a shaven-headed, left-wing apparatchik than a collar and tie wearing member of the bourgeoisie.

THE IRI AT WORK
Since collapse of Communism, IRI has concentrated activity in former Soviet bloc, and on elections in particular. Senator McCain himself has often been there, right at the coal- face. Dec. 1993 he led mission of 25 IRI observers to Russia's first post-Soviet parliamentary election. Institute's report published afterwards make no mention of the brutal assault on the Russian parliament the previous Oct.. Instead the rapporteurs concentrate exclusively on the conduct of the poll; their response is ecstatic. They found "the emergence of a multiparty system within 2 years of the collapse of the Communist's single-party monopoly to be a truly remarkable development." The poll also sought approval for country's first post-Communist constitution which was passed by a small margin. Despite strong suspicions at the time that the vote had been fiddled, the IRI was unperturbed: "The Russian people also deserve recognition for their endorsement of a post- communist constitutional order providing a clear division of power " In statement the following April, even the head of Russia's Central Election Commission admitted that votes in the constitutional ballot had been augmented as a result of election fraud. But IRI & Sen. McCain had moved …
2 One of McCain's election promises is to put a stop to the funding of corrupt Russian mafia & and business activities. People most implicated in bleeding Russia dry over the past decade have been 'democrats' supported by the IRI, their task made easier by 1993 constitution which concentrated power, almost exclusively, to the president. IRI assistance recipients in Central & E.Europe :

Govts led by people with, at most, vestigial ties to the Party and, at least, no ties at all have been elected to govern in Central & E.Europe. In most cases, these people have lost, latest being right-wing Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) being replaced by former high-ranking Communists who still tried to keep the party's hold on power in the first free election in 1990. In all cases IRI has played leading part in bringing these changes about. Its methods are questionable; results cause dismay.

Consider Albania. During the mid-nineties leftist human rights groups joined the Clinton administration in criticizing Sali Berisha's Democratic Party for its perceived totalitarian policies. Despite early support for the Albanian Democrats from George Bush's administration there was no support from the Republicans in the US when attempts were made to destabilize the government in Tirana. IRI, which had an office in the Albanian capital, parroted all the accusations against Berisha's party. An IRI official in Washington called the hero of the anti-Communist forces, Azem Haijdari, "a pig" in an interview in 1998 while supporting bona fides of ex-Communist Socialist Party of Albania. European right-wing parties also have their own 'trade-union', the European Democratic Union, and, although it was less than combative, the EDU made some attempts to understand the problems faced by Berisha's party and put its case in international forums.
Haijdari was murdered in Sept. 1998, but only after the country had been plunged into lawlessness during widespread unrest the previous year. A new Socialist govt made up of former Communists has not improved situation. Albania is now recognized as a Mafia state where the collapse of law & order has led to widespread smuggling of drugs & people to W.Europe. …

In the last few years both IRI & NDI expanded their involvement in election processes of certain countries. They began by simply monitoring conduct of polls; they extended activities by opening local offices from where they offered assistance to political parties while monitoring the overall 'democratic process'. In many areas the IRI has been even more active than its sister organization. Providing expertise for improved polling practices is one of its specialties. On the surface this looks innocent but conduct of opinion polls can affect election outcome. Those most likely to act as pollsters are young people. During 1998 election campaign in Slovakia where the IRI was particularly active, anti-govt newspaper, The Slovak Spectator, noted some people were obviously unprepared to divulge their voting intentions to their young interlocutors because they suspected them of being opposition supporters. Polls which show surges of support for one party or another can affect peoples' voting intentions. IRI-sponsored poll produced shortly before recent Croat election showed governing HDZ party with only 18% support. Although the party was trounced on election day itself, it gained 26% of the total vote, 8% more than the IRI's pollsters predicted.…
Pretence of objectivity is negated by reading IRI letter of invitation sent to prospective observers to the Croat elections. Dated 12.6.99 & signed by Lorne Craner, IRI's executive president, it announces "Croatia's brand of govt has been nationalistic & authoritarian" … and "not a single election held in Croatia since 1990 has been reported upon favourably by intl observers." This statement grossly distort the facts and also raises the question of why such a pariah state should have been allowed into such intl organizations as the Council of Europe which promote human rights & democracy. In spite of its manifest bias, the letter concedes that the (authoritarian) govt in Zagreb will officially accredit foreign observers like those from the IRI. It did so.

THE YOUTH COMPONENT
Concentration on youth is part of IRI's strategy. Middle-aged & older voters in former Soviet Bloc show scant enthusiasm reformed Communists loved by the West. They are aware of the background of such people repackaged as reform proponents. The young have no such memories; to the U.S., they want only to make money and go to rock concerts. But they tend to be apathetic. So, supply them with the money and the music and they will vote as required or, at least once registered can be voted for as "dead souls." The IRI's first venture into serious 'youth politics' began in the winter of 1996-7 when it helped to organize opposition protests to President Milosevic in Belgrade. People may remember the crowds with their whistles, keys and cooking pots rooting for change. The protests failed and Milosevic survived. Things fared better in neighbouring Bulgaria where similar groups of angry young people forced the Socialist govt from power.

For 1998 Slovak elections, IRI imported an American ingredient. Rock the Vote was set up in the US in 1991 with aim of getting apathetic young Americans to register &#amp; vote by providing youth culture rock & pop concerts as well as promotions in record stores, restaurants and clubs. Rock the Vote also proposed more substantial changes to the American political system by urging two-day voting & a proportional system, both available in some Central European countries where election fraud is not unknown. In Slovakia, for example, apathy was a serious problem. In some regions less than 20% between 18-25 had voted in 1994. IRI … hired a young Slovak, Martin Kapusta, to set up Slovak equivalent of Rock the Vote, Rock Volieb. With generous funding from IRI, among others, Rock Volieb was able to pay for the best bands and flood the media with its message. For the benefit of those who believe that foreigners should not interfere in another country's internal political affairs, IRI's Kapusta claimed that "this campaign does not promote any political party, candidates or coalitions." But even sympathizers predicted that "certain parties" would benefit from the activities of Rock Volieb more than others.
The project worked. 84% participation in the Slovak election and the 'reformers' won. Some Slovaks suspected that groups of young people traveled around the country voting more than once; it is possible to vote away from home in Slovakia where 2 days are allowed for the poll. No concrete evidence was produced. The 'dictatorial' govt of Vladimir Meciar seemed totally unprepared for and unaware of what was going on. IRI crowed victory, in particular over its own contribution. "IRI polls changed the nature of the campaign" boasts its winter 1998 newsletter. Sen. McCain added a special pat on the back: the result was "a victory for reformers in Slovakia …it was the latest example of "men and women who a decade ago lived behind the iron curtain and are now on the leading edge of democracy's advance."

IRI AND ITS LESSONS FOR McCAIN
… Daughter Sydney McCain works in the 'music business' and her father let slip at New Hampshire meetings that his favourite band is Nine Inch Nails … He also boasted of being the only candidate to have attended the MTV awards. … In much of post-communist Europe the IRI has helped restore ex-Marxists to the … top of society.

… spent much of 1980's working on foreign policy issues, incl Nicaragua, El Salvador and Cambodia. Election standards & observation has come long way since. 10yrs ago whether citizens were able to cast ballots in orderly fashion was the standard by which democratic process was judged. In late 1980's & early 1990's, Latin American & east European dictators taught us lesson that events surrounding election are often more important than the day itself. Specifically, authoritarians realized that, to steal an election, they did not have to stuff the ballot boxes, but could instead achieve their objective in the months surrounding Election Day by means less apparent to traditional observers. In effect, for IRI & other observation groups, a one part test for judging an election had to become 4 part test if we were to accurately evaluate how representative of a country's democracy an election was. [ U.S. Selection2K did not clearly pass #2 & #3; It also challenges whether #4 respect is appropriate if result is same as complacent Selection2K. When not one of 100 senators would endorse even a discussion of electoral college results' certification despite clearly consequential & widely contested irregularities, democracy suffers by respecting process over protest. Thanks for trying Rep. Cynthia McKinney, Rep. Bob Filner & Cong. Black Caucus ]

IRI's experience
Since 1983 IRI observed more than 70 elections in over three dozen countries. We have only one asset that matters, reputation for impartiality, willingness to call an election process like we see it without regard to who won or lost. Most recently, called 1995 Haitian elections flawed, earning democrats' criticism. Judged 1996 Albanian elections flawed, criticism from own party by President Berisha admirers Cambodia's election Judge Cambodia's 1998 election flawed & among worst observed since 1993. Condemn not for Election Day, but days, weeks & months before & after balloting. 7.26.98 Election Day impressed many observers incl IRI. Pre-election and counting & longterm post-election below acceptable standard. 4 Cambodia election phases:
7.14.98 joint IRI/NDI statement judged pre-election phase " fundamentally flawed " because of

In short, during pre-election, CPP wrote the rules & controlled process.

IRI-NDI 7.28.98 prelim statement indicated second test, Election Day administration, was as good as many seen over past 5yrs; deserves high mark. Admin ran very smoothly at most places observed; few saw any sign of Election Day intimidation; over 90#37; of registered turned up at the polls.
Per question of pre-Election Day intimidation pre-ordaining votes, most voters we asked directly said not intimidated. If subsequent election portions smoothly run as observed Election Day activities, some pre-election problems, though unacceptable, were, in context, significantly ameliorated. Unfortunately not so.

After promising start, 3rd counting process part immediately following Election Day deliberately incomplete. Counting proceeded smoothly until halted mid-afternoon 7.27.98 According high NEC source, pause ordered by CPP officials after opposition took ballot count lead. Legally obligated to do so, NEC declined to address all but a few of 800+ Election Day & counting irregularities charged by the opposition; the constitutional council, supposedly the final arbiter of elections appeals, like the NEC refused to hear the majority of opposition complaints and sided completely with the NEC on issues important to the opposition, including used & unused ballots, recounts, and assembly seat allocation; during the counting process, with little explanation, the NEC revealed that the formula relating ballots won to assembly seats won had been changed before the election.
Orig. formulas left CPP with minority of assembly seats; formula finally decided upon gave CPP a majority.   [ Selection2K ]   Longer term, after voting & counting ended Cambodia's govt failed to act democratically:

In last few days, FUNCINPEC & Rainsy party agreed to attend Cambodia's parliament opening under duress. Beyond intl pressure Japan & Asian countries exerted on opposition to come to terms with Hun Sen, King Sihanouk said " in a Cambodia that is not a state of law & not a full fledged democracy, I have no other choice than to advise the weak to choose a policy that avoids misfortune for the people, the motherland and themselves. " One-sided negotiations don't make lasting coalition. '98 Election constitutes deliberate exploitation of weaknesses in 1980's -style election observation to attain legitimacy declaration. Cambodia's govt conducted Election Day at intl standards, hoping observers ignored hundreds of days of repression surrounding it. Strategy worked.

Excuses After every bad election, 2 most common are:

IRI's experience observing 6 dozen elections make such arguments specious. Textbook elections in countries as poor as Cambodia while other countries have not experienced trauma of Cambodia's killing fields. Many have a longer history of dictatorship. Ex. a ruling party does not need to head a wealthy, long-time democracy to refrain from murdering its political opponents. Mongolia, a nation nearly as poor in Cambodia, with a longer history of dictatorship, had an election run & lost by former communists in 1996 without any election-related murders. Nor must a country be a longstanding, wealthy democracy to properly count & recount ballots. One of the most well conducted elections IRI has observed was the 1994 Autonomous Council Election on the remote Miskito Coast of Nicaragua, poorest region of a poor country emerging from decades of dictatorship. [ IRI democracy in place of Sandinista admin having brought trade zone sweatshops & Malay corp. deforestation as dominant economic engines to appease intl development loans conditional on certified elections. Unsecret ballots aren't only form of pre-election vote intimidation. Choice between economic predation vs. foreign funded civil war usually compels voting for the former. Hispanola has long memory of peonage preferable to cannon fodder. Neither choice seems to stop narco$ corruption of democratic "processes" which enrich interlocked National Security boards of directors lending like the planet is a company town. ]

Ramifications of accepting Cambodia's election
To accept this election devalues worth of elections in building democracies around the world. Other dictators would feel free to kill opposition members, gut opposition party infrastructures, name a biased election commission, intimidate voters, conduct questionable ballot counts and refuse recounts confident that intl community will certify process as long as Election Day looks good. U.N., parts of Europe, China, Vietnam, and Burma observers apparently willing to give such a certification to Cambodia's election, but U.S. has a duty to billions around the world … [ Hyperbole. IRI is not the US & the world's billions did not ask or vote the U.S. to define elections' justice. There are plenty of sufficient ethical appeals but this global imperialist cant of nationalist "duty" is an emotional appeal indefensible from logical challenge. ]

Cambodia's election & U.S. policy
Basic choice between accepting the election process or not. Both House & Senate FY99 foreign operations bill makes clear the unwillingness of congress to accept Cambodia's elections. Not a case of trade sanctions … Asia satisfied with election, the Europeans (with exception France) not. U.S. leadership position & working with others to follow it has in past produced results. … Worldwide disgust that followed last July's coup had much of the desired effect on Hun Sen, largely because, unlike the 1980's, Moscow & Vietnam are unable to bankroll & guard his rule. Hun Sen ultimate legitimacy, U.S. acceptance. Events of the 1980's, 1993, 1997 and 1998 have shown Hun Sen is not a democrat. Democracy in Cambodia lies not with Hun Sen, but with Cambodia's opposition, whom we should support. Pressure should be placed on Hun Sen to change his ways, and not on the opposition to simultaneously risk their lives while debasing their understanding of democracy. Further steps, including whether the U.S. should back intl financial institution assistance for Cambodia, Cambodia's U.N. seat, and whether new U.S. ambassador. Results of FBI investigation into Easter 1997 grenade attack on Sam Rainsy should be made public … for 2 reasons: Rainsy is threatened with arrest by Hun Sen's security forces for supposedly attacking himself (a charge dismissed by head UN HRts Office, which itself investigated the attack), and second, because IRI employee Ron Abney was injured in the attack.
Conclusion
Cambodia suffered conflict for almost 30 years. I am not among those who believe U.S. policy during Vietnam war resulted in 1975 Khmer Rouge victory, but I do believe that, with the exception of 1991-1993, Cambodia for too long has suffered from the neglect of the intl community,. especially during last 5 years when U.S. Cambodia policy at best consisted of building roads at the expense of building democracy, and at worst suffered from egregiously poor judgement. The U.S., including the U.S. congress, should help give Cambodians the future they deserve.

For first time in 68 years, Mexican voters denied the governing Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) absolute majority in federal Chamber of Deputies. In balloting for 32 members of the 128- seat Senate and local officials in seven states, voters also swung toward the opposition Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and National Action Party (PAN). The PRD's Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas was elected mayor of Mexico City, and PAN candidates prevailed in two important gubernatorial races. Politicians & pundits cited two key factors contributing to the erosion of the PRI's electoral prospects. First, sharp recession brought about by Dec. 1994 peso devaluation cut living standards and undermined govt's popularity. Second, 1996 reforms significantly leveled electoral playing field, providing opposition parties with far more money & media access than ever before. Domestic & intl observers boosted voter confidence. With support through USAID's Consortium for Elections & Political Process Strengthening (CEPPS) agreement, the International Republican Institute (IRI) organized a 37-member observer delegation, largest intl group monitoring the Mexican elections. The delegation deployed to 16 states, including all 7 states where local elections were held. The delegates focused on rural areas & areas with a history of electoral fraud.

The IRI delegation coordinated with selected observers organized by the National Women's Civic Association (ANCIFEM), a Mexican civic group. ANCIFEM deployed nearly 1,500 Mexican observers nationwide, a dozen of whom teamed up with IRI's delegates. This cooperation allowed IRI to leverage its resources while tapping the experience of local civic leaders. In a statement issued the morning after the election, IRI delegation leader, California Sec.State Bill Jones, noted, "Voting in most parts of the country was orderly, and turnout was high for a mid-term election." He added, "There is increasing evidence that Mexico's political system is moving toward greater pluralism. While much attention has focused on the mayoral race in Mexico City, the fact that no single party will dominate the Chamber of Deputies may have more significant implications for the consolidation of democracy in Mexico. This development heralds a new era in which the three largest political parties will have to negotiate with one another."
IRI's delegates found Mexico's electoral institutions have made real progress toward winning voters' confidence. 1996 reforms gave the Federal Electoral Institute an unprecedented degree of independence, and political party representatives, civic leaders, and the media described the vote as "a triumph for democracy." IRI is continuing to monitor the post-election conflict resolution process, which has been contentious in past elections. The Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary will examine results in many individual races. IRI will pay special attention to the rulings of the state electoral tribunals, which are the ultimate arbiters of state elections. In some states these tribunals are distrusted, and close gubernatorial races in Campeche, Colima, and San Luis Potosí suggest that some decisions may not be universally accepted.

TIRANA & IRI appreciated today the electoral reformation in Albania from the Parliamentary elections of last May & incites the govt to conclude reformation started by Parliament and issues all political parties agreed on, during IRI's Electoral Conference Aug. this year.
[ Coaching & facilitating elections, not just observing. ]

"IRI is proud for serving like a catalyst for reopening political dialogue in Albania and pleased with first signs of concrete progress in electoral reformation," said IRI's President Lorne Craner. "IRI incites the govt & all political parties to continue dialogue and assure electoral reformation." IRI issued 31 recommendations on the electoral reformation after 5.26.96 elections. 8 forcefully addressed legislation Albanian Parliament passed during its sessions of 9.11-12.96 IRI asks further addtl actions by Central Election Commission or govt for fulfillment of many other IRI's recommendations agreed in principle in the conference.
[ dictating legislation & terms of holding office because they are certification authority for elections' degree of democracy required to qualify for intl foreign aid & loans ]

The Parliament specifically passed a law which regulates public gatherings, total amendments on local election law, amendments on parliamentary elections and a decree of the President of the Republic about the CEC. IRI considers these changes as important steps taken by Albanian govt in the improvement of electoral proceedings & people's confidence. Govt has also agreed to issue regulations & recommendations to fulfill some other IRI's recommendations on issues which do not ask legislative actions, most important of which is publishing regulations about police position on polling day (Rec#4), training election commission members (Rec#10), [ Training by IRI ? ]

easing procedure of assuring observer's card for local & foreign observers (Rec# 11) and creation of regulations for division of govt & party financial sources (Rec#12). IRI continues observation of law, election campaign and poll day activities, esp. 10.20.96.

review The Men We Left Behind Henry Kissinger, Politics of Deceit & Tragic Fate of POWs After Vietnam War, Mark Sauter & Jim Sanders National Press Books, Bethesda, MD 1993
… Consider USAF pilot Robert Craner, who endured more than 5 years in captivity and was assigned to be "memory bank" of names & other vital information of POWs with whom he came in contact while in Vietnamese POW camps. His debriefer upon returning to the states was a career military intelligence officer named John Halachis. Some 50 to 60 names that Craner memorized were neither returned nor accounted for by the Vietnamese communists. "'Some were just taken, some were taken off away for disciplinary reasons, for a variety of reasons. Some were considered by the camp guards [to be] high risk for escape,' he says. "For each of 50-60 named POWs, Halachis filed a report that contained all information stored in Craner's memory. But none of Craner's names were released by the Senate Select Committee on POW/MIAs. Presumably, they remain in classified Senate or Pentagon files."
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